Sunday, November 02, 2008
Election Watch: My Prediction for Tuesday
Here it is, November 2nd, the view of the front and back of our house, respectively, is beautiful, the temperature is in the low 70s, and I went to church today. Why? Well, November 4th is only two days away, and I don't want to risk making God decide to punish me by giving me four more years of McSame/Barracuda.
Would God really make the whole country suffer with four more years of Republican rule just because I skipped church? I don't really think so, but why take a chance? So, I went, even though the more worshipful experience would probably have been to sit in the sunshine in the back yard.
So, what is my prediction? I hope Obama will win big. I am satisfied if he wins narrowly. I fear he will lose. The only thing I am confident about is that McCain will not win big. My biggest worry is that all the pundits are predicting an Obama win, and the pundits have nearly always been wrong this election cycle.
In my gut, I think Obama will win. Even if the polls are even, and most of them show a significant Obama lead, particularly in the battleground states, I think Obama's community-organizing background has served him well in organizing a ground game that has never been equaled, certainly not by the McSame/Barracuda campaign. Plus, the polls don't measure cell phone users. One of Obama's strengths is young people, and many young people have only a cell phone, so I think the polls are undermeasuring Obama support.
But, on the other hand, I thought all of this also before the New Hampshire primary, and although the polls showed a 10 percent Obama lead the weekend before the election, he lost to Hilary. As Obama said in a speech last week, to those who are overly-confident that he will win, he has two words: New Hampshire. No one knows what effect the last minute attack ads by McCain will have. Campaigns use attack ads for one reason: they work.
Still, I think this is a different year, and Obama will win. I hope.