Obama Report: Please Don't Break My Heart

Regular readers know I am a long-time Obama supporter. However, for the record, with less than 48 hours to go before he takes office, I should warn myself and others that I am fully prepared to be disappointed.

Part of it is my nature. As I mention in my self-description above, I am an "aging skeptic." I haven't seen it all, but I have seen enough. The Wife says I look at a glass half empty instead of half full. I prefer to think I look at life realistically. We can ill afford illusions, least of all after eight years of disasters because our president thought it better to pretend that he knew what he was doing than admit mistakes.

Politicians have repeatedly broken my heart. I was elated when Jimmy Carter was elected, thinking at long last we had someone in office who would not lie to us. After four years, I was ready to vote for a senile actor who could not lie because he could not tell the difference between the truth and untruth. I was elated when Bill Clinton was elected, thinking at long last we had someone in office who could feel our pain; who cared about the little guy and knew how to get things done. I still think Clinton was the best president, by far, since Franklin D. Roosevelt, but he could have been so much better if he could have kept his pants zipped. The heartbreak of the Clinton Administration is what could have been if he had only been more disciplined.

Once again, I feel elation with the coming inauguration of Barack Obama. He is even smarter, politically, than Clinton, and that is saying a lot. His heart is in the right place. He doesn't need to tell us he feels our pain, we can see it in his life story. He didn't have a father pulling strings to get him into the best universities, set him up with sweetheart business deals and putting him in touch with the best political consultants. Everything Obama got, he earned. Imagine,just eight years ago, he had trouble making it to the Democratic national convention in Los Angeles because the car rental agency wouldn't accept his credit card. To then raise more money, far more money than anyone has ever raised in a political campaign; to put together a campaign organization smarter and more disciplined, far smarter and more disciplined than even the Clintons could put together is absolutely astounding.

It is tempting to ascribe super-human abilities to Obama because what he has already accomplished seems almost super-human. The problems our country faces after eight years of Bush malfeasance are so deep that it will take almost super-human efforts to save ourselves from further disaster. On top of the record deficits that Bush accumulated during good times, we now have to pump even more borrowed money into the economy to keep it from total collapse. That is a misstatement; we already have total collapse. Everywhere we look, businesses are closing and employees are getting laid off. I am convinced the economists, at least the Bush economists, have no idea whether the measures they are taking will work or not; they just feel like they have to do something; anything.

The world is a much more dangerous place than it was eight years ago. Bush neglected our real dangers in order to spend time and money in places where our security was not threatened. Can anyone fix the mismanagement that has put terrorists like Hamas in charge of the elected government of Palestine; that has made Iran the new best friend of its ancient enemy, Iraq; that has a nuclear-armed North Korea thumbing its nose at the rest of the world; that has a nuclear-armed Pakistan teetering on the verge of being controlled by fundamentalist Jihadists?

We want Obama to have super-powers because he is going to need them to get us through the next four years without further disaster.

I am not pleased with some of Obama's personnel choices. I still think the selection of windy Joe Biden as vice president was a mistake that will bite him in the rear before the next term is over. I do not think the selection of Hilary Clinton as secretary of state is going to turn out to have been a good one. She has not demonstrated the vision to bring creative thinking to solving world problems and she has not demonstrated the management skills to run the vast bureaucracy that is the State Department. Yes, she is a policy wonk, but wonks do best three or four layers down from the decision making levels.

And yet, and yet, I believe in the possibility of Obama to make everything come out all right. He has done so many things right, when the pundits were discounting him. Who am I to doubt him now? His efforts to change the tone in Washington are working. Having a dinner to honor John McCain, who is a very vain man, is nothing short of genius. Having dinner with the conservative pundits like George Will, William Kristol and David Brooks was a smart move. Having Rick Warren, whom I detest, give the invocation at the inauguration is very smart.

If Obama pulls this off, he will have been one of the greatest presidents of all time; on a par with Washington, Lincoln and Roosevelt; worthy of a place on Mount Rushmore. I think he can. I am getting to be too old to have my heart broken once again.

Obama Report: Should Hillary Be Secretary of State?

Not all of my advice to Barack Obama has been bad. Back in 2004, I thought he should run for president this year, and thought that if he could get the nomination (a big "if" with a formidable opponent like Hillary Clinton with all the seeming name, money and organizational advantages) he would win the general election. I didn't think it would be a good idea to have Hillary Clinton as the vice presidential nominee. On the other hand, I didn't think it a good idea to have Joe Biden as the vice presidential nominee and that has worked out okay -- I guess. (Kind of. Well,at least Biden didn't cost him the election with his foot-in-mouth disease.)

Now, all the pundits are saying the idea of having Clinton as Secretary of State is a wonderful idea, inspired by the ancient saying attributed to the Chinese military sage,Sun Tzu, "Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer." The Sunday morning bloviators are citing Doris Kearns Goodwin's book, Team of Rivals, about Abraham Lincoln's first cabinet, which included his competitors for the Republican nomination for presidency as precedent for Obama selecting Clinton. Even Henry Kissinger thinks it would be a wonderful idea.

I'm not so sure it's a good idea to select Hillary as Secretary of State. As I see it, there are two main requirements for the job. You want someone who is an innovative thinker, who has the ability to think outside the box in coming up with solutions to almost insoluble problems between nations, and you want someone who can manage a large bureaucracy of around 40,000 employees

Hillary Clinton has a certain kind of intelligence, she is not a dummy, along the lines of George W. Bush or Sarah Palin by any means. But neither is she a Henry Kissinger, although an evil genius in many ways, nevertheless a genius. Is there anyone besides Nixon and Kissinger who would have had the nerve to make the opening to China 35 years ago, and does anyone doubt that the world is a much better, safer place because they did take that step? Hillary is the good student, the one who studies hard and gets A's because she can regurgitate what the teacher told her. But she has never demonstrated the ability to innovate -- not as First Lady, not as Senator and certainly not as a presidential candidate. I will forgive her the vote to invade Iraq, other smart people besides her were misled by the Bush Administration's hyperbole about weapons of mass destruction. But she could never find it in herself to admit her mistake and to tell us what she learned from it.

Hillary's attempt to paint Obama's call for negotiations with our enemies as being dangerously naive is an example of her conventional thinking that shows her limited imagination. In fact, the idea that we dare not talk to our enemies is dangerous in my opinion. It shows weakness, not strength, to think that somehow we will become contaminated if we talk with those with whom we have disagreements and conflicts.

Nor has she shown any ability to manage a bureaucracy. After starting out 20 points ahead in the polls, with all the resources of Clinton loyalists from her husband's time as president, with a substantial war chest of money, how could she lose the nomination to a little-known first termer? She was out worked and out organized. Clinton's presidential campaign was a constant stream of turn-overs, with leaks and back biting. She was unable or unwilling to put an end to the fighting and get everybody working together to run her campaign. Things won't get any easier in the Department of State, with its byzantine rivalries.

So, should Hillary have no role in the Obama Administration? I have an excellent job for her, one for which she is well suited -- Supreme Court justice. There will certainly be several Supreme Court vacancies, probably early in the Obama administration. Hillary can do much more to influence the public policy direction of the country with a life time appointment to the Supreme Court than she could with four, or even eight years as Secretary of State. Writing Supreme Court opinions is the kind of wonkish detail at which she would excel. As a Senator, she would have an easy time getting confirmed by the Senate.

So, please, Barack. Listen to me this time. Don't appoint Hillary as the next Secretary of State. Get her to wait for the Supreme Court appointment.

Obama Report: More Questionable Connections

Forget about Bill Ayers, the ex-Weatherman-turned-education-professor, the Republicans would have really had a field day with Barack Obama's questionable connections if they had known about his association with Arcola's infamous Lawn Rangers.

The Lawn Rangers were the inspiration of Pat Monahan (whom Dave Barry once called the second-funniest man in America) way back in the early 1980s. Clayton Moore, the actor who played the Lone Ranger, was making an appearance at Arcola's Broomcorn Festival, a festival nominally dedicated to honoring Arcola's heritage as the "Broomcorn capital of the world." (I say "nominally" because like most small town festivals, it is more of an excuse for vendors to hawk greasy foods and drunks to hang out in a beer tent.) The whole idea of having Clayton Moore appear in Arcola wearing wrap-around sun glasses because of trade mark and copyright issues with the famous mask is pretty funny in itself. Monahan invented the Lawn Rangers to march in the parade that year as a precision lawn mower drill team, spoofing Clayton Moore and the Shriners who typically drive little cars and motorcycles in parades.

Dave Barry, the syndicated columnist and humorist, got interested in Arcola and the silliness of the Lawn Rangers and started coming to the Broom Corn Festival and carousing with the Lawn Rangers many years ago. He wrote about his first appearance in 1991 here. He has another column about the appearance of the moon at Ranger rookie camps here.

The picture above comes from Barry's blog, where he states that Obama appeared as a Lawn Ranger in 2003 when he was a little known state senator and the Rangers were in Chicago to march in the St. Patrick's Day parade.

You can watch a six-minute documentary about the Lawn Rangers featuring the infamous Pat Monahan by clicking below.

Yes We Can!

It is hard to believe that Barack Obama actually did it, and he won big. The first president in a long time to get a majority of the votes cast, and the largest electoral vote margin in many years. I found myself getting angry listening to Obama's victory speech in Grant Park. Angry that we have had to put with eight years of a president who was a stumblebum; unable to form a logical thought or to articulate a rationale for what he was trying to do.

I thought Obama seemed a little subdued at his Grant Park victory party, maybe realizing that this is no longer a game; he is now responsible for leading a country that is in as dire shape. If we are to get out of the hole that neocon policies have put us, Obama is the person to do it, but it isn't going to be easy. I think he can do it. With our help. Yes, we can!

Election Watch: My Prediction for Tuesday

Here it is, November 2nd, the view of the front and back of our house, respectively, is beautiful, the temperature is in the low 70s, and I went to church today. Why? Well, November 4th is only two days away, and I don't want to risk making God decide to punish me by giving me four more years of McSame/Barracuda.

Would God really make the whole country suffer with four more years of Republican rule just because I skipped church? I don't really think so, but why take a chance? So, I went, even though the more worshipful experience would probably have been to sit in the sunshine in the back yard.

So, what is my prediction? I hope Obama will win big. I am satisfied if he wins narrowly. I fear he will lose. The only thing I am confident about is that McCain will not win big. My biggest worry is that all the pundits are predicting an Obama win, and the pundits have nearly always been wrong this election cycle.

In my gut, I think Obama will win. Even if the polls are even, and most of them show a significant Obama lead, particularly in the battleground states, I think Obama's community-organizing background has served him well in organizing a ground game that has never been equaled, certainly not by the McSame/Barracuda campaign. Plus, the polls don't measure cell phone users. One of Obama's strengths is young people, and many young people have only a cell phone, so I think the polls are undermeasuring Obama support.

But, on the other hand, I thought all of this also before the New Hampshire primary, and although the polls showed a 10 percent Obama lead the weekend before the election, he lost to Hilary. As Obama said in a speech last week, to those who are overly-confident that he will win, he has two words: New Hampshire. No one knows what effect the last minute attack ads by McCain will have. Campaigns use attack ads for one reason: they work.

Still, I think this is a different year, and Obama will win. I hope.

Obamania: He's In Therapy!

Oh, what the Republicans won't do with this one. Barack Obama admitted to John Stewart last night on The Daily Show that he's in therapy -- to make sure his white half won't keep him for voting for himself on November 4th. (If you're humor-impaired, don't worry, it's a joke. But no more outlandish than the other ridiculous things the McCain camp has been trying to use against him.) Here's the clip. Notice the gray in his hair. It seems to me to be graying by the day. Has the campaign been that tough? Has he stopped using Grecian formula? Is he going to be completely white-haired by the end of his first term? Inquiring minds want to know.

Obamania: What Are We For?

I've spent a lot of blog space over the last several weeks deriding McCain and Palin. Lest I be accused of excessive negativism, here's a good summary of what we Obama fans are for:

McCain Report: At What Point Do You Start Feeling Sorry For The Guy?

This has to hurt. Charles Freed, one of the most distinguished conservative legal scholars in the country, solicitor general under Ronald Reagan and a prominent member of several McCain campaign committees announced that he is resigning from the McCain committees and voting for Barack Obama. The reason? McCain's pick of Sarah Palin.

With all the announcements of conservatives switching parties and announcing for Obama, does anyone know of any prominent people who have switched the other way? I suppose you could count Lieberman, although I don't really count him as he is officially in the U.S. Senate as an Independent. Still, he was Al Gore's running mate just eight years ago, so I would give McCain that one. Anyone else?

Obamania: Scott McClelland Announces for Obama

In July, I had a series of posts about former Bush press secretary, Scott McClellan's expose, What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington's Culture of Deception. McClelland who had been with Bush for many years finally got fed up with all the lying he was required to do as Bush's spokesman, quit and wrote the book. Now, the other shoe has dropped. McClellan has announced who he is supporting as the next president: Barack Obama! See the video.

The Wife wanted to know if this wasn't obvious after McClellan's book. I don't think so. Although the book was devastating in revealing what went on behind the scenes in the Bush White House, McClellan's roots in the Republican establishment run deep. This is certainly a different kind of election. Even the grandchildren of Barry Goldwater, Mr. Conservative himself, announced today they are endorsing Obama. This is only the latest in a line of conservatives coming over to our side, including Christopher Buckley, son of the famous William Buckley, founder of the National Review; Susan Eisenhower, granddaughter of Dwight Eisenhower.

So who is next? Maybe Condolezza Rice? She keeps hinting at it; maybe she won't announce before the election but will reveal her choice afterwards. Laura Bush? She has a lot more sense than her husband. I think we can rest assured that we won't hear that Dick Cheney voted for Obama.

Blogging the Third Obama - McCain Debate

Blogging the last presidential debate was a lot of fun. There's a lot of buildup to this one, with McCain threatening to "whip his you-know-what." Is McCain going to try to change the Obama momentum by a bold statement or will it be more of the same? We'll see. It starts in 7 seconds.

I like Bob Schieffer. He looks like someone's grandfather, (well, if your grandfather isn't Amish.)

They walk out. McCain doesn't take a punch.

First Question: Both proposed new economic plans. Ask both of you, "Why is your plan better than his?"

McCain: Americans are hurting and angry. Innocent victims of Wall Street and Washington, D.C. Won't repeat elements of plan. Need short term and long term fixes. The catalyst for housing crisis was Fannie and Freddie Mae (actually it was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.) But home mortgages so people can stay in their homes.

Obama: Everybody understands we are facing the worst financial crisis since Great Depression. McCain and I supported the rescue plan. Haven't yet seen a rescue package for the middle class. Have proposed four things: 1. Focus on jobs; 2. Help families right away by providing them with a tax cut and let them access IRA's without penalties. Have to help home owners. Disagree with Sen. McCain about how to do it. Could be a give away to banks. (McCain is smirking.)

McCain: Obama in Ohio had an encounter with a guy who is a plumber, Joe. He wanted to buy the business, but your tax plan would put him in a higher tax plan. Joe wants to reach the American dream. Joe, I want to help you buy your business. I will not have a tax increase on small business income. What you want to do to Joe the Plumber is having a tax increase.

Obama: Joe has been watching some ads of Senator McCain. I don't want to raise his taxes. McCain wants to give tax breaks to big business; Mobil Oil and Exxon. I have said if you make less than $250,000 a year, your taxes will not go up one dime. What I said to Joe the Plumber is that five years ago when you wanted to buy your business, you needed a tax cut then. I want to give a tax cut now. Ninety percent of small businesses make less than $250,000 a year.

McCain: Sen. Obama said to Joe the Plumber that "I want to spread the wealth around." In other words to take the money from Joe the Plumber, give it to Senator Obama and let him spread the wealth around. Why do you want to increase taxes on anyone?

Obama: I want to cut taxes for 95 percent of Americans. It is true that my friend, Warren Buffet, could afford to pay a little more so that we can give more of a tax break to Joe the Plumber. Look, nobody likes taxes. I would prefer if no one had to pay taxe.

McCain: Let's not raise anyone's taxes. Businesses in American are paying the second highest tax rate of any place in the world. In Ireland, businesses are paying 11 percent; here it's 35 percent.

First Question winner: Obama

Second Question: Nonpartisan committee says each of your proposals will add $200 billion to the deficit. Won't some of your programs have to be trimmed, postponed or eliminated.

Obama: First, the $700 billion rescue package, if it is structured properly will mean that taxpayers will get their money back (McCain smirking again.) Every dollar of spending I propose, I have proposed an additional cut. I want to go through the federal budget line by line and cut programs that don't work. We need to invest in America. If invest in health care now, will save money in the future. If invest in energy program, will save money in the future. Can't go back to our profligate ways. All of us have to embrace a culture of responsibility.

McCain: During depression, had a corporation that bought up home mortgages and eventually made money. This was originally Senator Clinton's proposal. Need to become energy independent. Would have an across the board spending freeze. We have presided over largest increase in spending since the Great Society. I know how to eliminate programs. One would be Marketing Assistance program, subsidies for ethanol. I know how to save billions. Would fight for a line item veto. Obama has asked for $3 billion in earmarks.

Obama: Disagree about across the board spending freeze. Sounds good; been proposed before and hasn't happened. It is a hatchet. We need a scalpel. Earmarks account for one half of one percent of federal budget. No doubt there are a lot of screwy things we need to eliminate, but that's not going to solve the whole program. Bush has doubled the deficit. Pursuing the same kinds of policies is not going to bring down the budget. McCain voted for four out of five of Bush's policies.

McCain: Sen. Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against Pres. Bush, you should have run four years ago. Mayor Bloomberg in NYC proposed spending freeze. We can do that. I have fought against spending, special interests.

Obama: The first major bill I voted for was tort reform, voted for charter schools, performance pay for, clean coal technology. On core economic issues, you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush. You have shown independence on things like torture and I give you credit for that. But on fundamental economic issues, you have supported Bush administration.

Second Question: McCain

Third Question: Both pledged to take the high road. Yet, it has turned nasty. Are each of you willing to sit at this table and willing to say to each other's face what your campaigns have said about each other.

McCain: If Obama had responded to my request to have 10 town hall meetings, we could have gotten this done. Regret many of the negative tones of this campaign. One of them was when John Lewis said that Sarah Palin and I were associated with George Wallace, church bombings. Obama didn't repudiate those remarks. Very unfair and hurtful. Obama has spent more money on negative ads than we have. Obama didn't keep his word to take public financing.

Obama: Expect presidential campaigns to be tough. Looks at the record and the impressions of the American people. One hundred percent of McCain campaigns have been negative. Two thirds of the American people think McCain has been running a negative campaign versus one third that think we have. American people don't care about hurt feelings. I don't mind being attacked for another four weeks. But American people don't deserve to not have economic problems addressed. McCain campaign said last week that if keep talking about economics, we lose.

McCain: You're running ads right now that say I oppose federal funding for stem cell research. I don't. Didn't hear repudiation of Congressman Lewis.

Obama: Cong. Lewis is an American hero. He said, without any prompting from my campaign that he was troubled at rallies by your running mate in which people were yelling "terrorist" and "kill him," when my name was mentioned. American people have gotten cynical about politics because all they see is tit for tat. (McCain tries to interrupt.)

McCain: I'm proud of people who come to our rallies. I'm not going to stand for anybody saying that people who come to my rallies aren't patriotic. I have repudiated anyone whose been out of line whether they have been in my campaign or not.

Obama: We can debate about the merits of each other's campaign, we won't agree. To solve the key problems we're facing: Solve two wars, economic crisis. Democrats and Republicans are going to have to work together. Have to disagree without being disagreeable. Can't characterize each other as bad people.

McCain: Don't care about some old terrorist. Need to know your full relationship with Ayers; your full relationship with Acorn.

Obama: Ayers has been the centerpiece of McCain campaign. Forty years ago, he engaged in despicable acts, which I condemned. Ten years ago, he served on a board funded by Annenberg, one of Ronald Reagan's friends. Others on the board were various university presidents. He won't advise me in the White House and has no connection with my campaign. Let me tell you who I associate with: Warren Buffet and Paul Volker. On foreign policy, Dick Lugar, a Republican, and Joe Biden.

McCain: While on board of Woods Foundation, you sent money to Acorn. Your political career was launched in Ayers living room.

Third Question winner: Obama

Fourth Question: Why would country be better off if your running mate became president rather than his running mate?

Obama: Biden one of the best public servants in the country. Never forgotten where he came from. His consistent pattern has been to fight for the little guy. (Not true. He helped pass a bankruptcy bill that is devastating to the little guy.) After eight years of failed policies he (Biden) and I both agree we have to reprioritize. Give help to small individuals; get energy independence. On key issues, Biden has always been on the right side.

McCain: Americans have gotten to know Sarah Palin. She's a role model. She's a reformer. Has given money back to the taxpayers. Reduced the size of government. Time we have that breath of fresh air coming in to the nation's capitol. She understands special needs families. Understands that autism is on the rise. Has united our party and people all over America. Can't tell you how proud I am of her.

Obama: Up to the American people whether she's qualified. Commendable the work she has done in special needs. Autism and other special needs will need some additional funding. If have an across the board spending freeze, won't be able to do it.

McCain: Biden is qualified in a lot of respects, but has been wrong in many respects. Wrong on first Iraq war. Had this wacky idea to divide Iraq in three ways. Notice every time Obama says we need to spend more. Why do we need to spend more? He has proposed $860 billion in new spending.

Fourth Question Answer: Obama

Fifth Question: Energy and Climate Change. Every president since Nixon has said we import too much foreign oil. Would each of you give me a number on how much we can reduce foreign oil during your first term?

McCain: Can eliminate dependence on Middle East and Venezuela oil in four years. With nuclear power, etc. within 7 or 8 years, can eliminate our dependence on oil from dangerous places.

Obama: Within 10 years, can eliminate dependence on oil from middle East and Venezuela. Need to expand domestic production. Tell oil companies to use or lose the 68 million acres they currently have leased that they're not using. Can't drill our way out of the problem. Need to put our resources in solar, wind, geothermal. Need to have an efficient car built in the U.S. rather than Japan. Believe in free trade. For far too long, in the Bush Administration, there was the attitude that any free trade agreement is a good agreement. I have said that we should make sure the rules are enforceable. South Korea is sending hundreds of thousands of cars into the U.S. and we can only get four thousand or five thousand cars into South Korea.

McCain: Admire Obama's eloquence, but have to listen to his words. He said, "look at offshore drilling." Look at. We can do offshore drilling right now. Obama opposes the Columbia free trade agreement. Hasn't traveled south of our border. Free trade with Columbia is a no brainer. Maybe you should travel down there.

Obama: Understand it pretty well. Labor leaders in Columbia have been targeted for assassinations. Have to make sure human rights are protected. Have to have a president who understands the benefits of free trade but will stand up for American workers. Auto industry is being hammered right now. Need to get them loan guaranties, but need to hold their feet to the fire to produce energy efficiency cars.

McCain: Obama doesn't want free trade agreement with our best ally in the region, but wants to sit down without preconditions with Hugo Chavez. No doubt that Sen. Obama wants to restrict trade and he wants to raise taxes. The last president who did that was Herbert Hoover.

Fifth Question winner: Draw.

Sixth Question: How to control health care costs.

Obama: This is the issue that will break your heart over and over again. My plan lets you not do anything if you have health insurance. Will try to lower costs so those savings are passed on to you. If you don't have health insurance, will provide you the option of buying into the same kind of federal pool that McCain and I are a part of. Will make sure the insurance companies don't discriminate on the basis of preexisting conditions; put more money into preventive care. This will cost some money on the front end, but in the long run the only way that can control the costs of health care.

McCain: Need to do a lot of things: Put health care records on line; have physical fitness and nutrition programs; give every American family a $5,000 tax credit. For Joe the Plumber, if you don't adopt the health care plan that Sen. Obama mandates, he's going to fine you. I still want to know how much that fine is going to be.

Obama: I will be happy to talk with you too, Joe, if you're out there. Here's your fine: zero. Exempt small businesses from having to pay into a kitty. For large businesses, they have to provide health care for their employees or someone has to. The average family pays $900 a year because of the uninsured. Joe, if you want to provide health insurance for your employees, we'll give you 50 percent credit. Sen. McCain says he will give you a $5,000 tax credit, that sounds pretty good. Older, less healthy folks won't be able to get health insurance. Sen. McCain will tax health benefits for the first time in history. Sen. McCain will strip away tax regulation of health insurance.

McCain: Joe, you're rich, congratulations. Joe wanted to buy the business he's been working with. You'll have to pay a fine if you don't buy the health plan that Sen. Obama mandates. That's big government at its best. Calls Obama, "Senator Government." Have too much government and too much spending. Grown by 40 percent by last eight years.

Obama: You heard my plan. If you have an employer based health care plan, you'll keep it. Don't take my word for it. U.S. Chamber of Commerce says McCain's plan could lead to loss of employer based health plan.

Winner: Obama

Question: Roe v. Wade. Would you nominate anyone who disagrees with your position on Roe v. Wade?

McCain: Disagree with Roe v. Wade, but would never impose a litmus test. Obama voted against Justices Breyers and Roberts because they disagreed. Would consider anyone in their qualifications. Don't believe anyone who supported Roe v. Wade is qualified.

Obama: Shouldn't apply a strict litmus test. Most important test in any judge, is their capacity to provide fairness and justice. One of us will be appointing one and maybe more judges. Roe v. Wade is a good decision and a moral decision. Women need to be able to make this decision. Constitution has right of privacy in it that should not be subject to state referendum. Will look for judges who have outstanding judicial record, intellect. McCain and I disagreed recently when Lilly Ledbetter pressed her job for pay discrimination. The Supreme Court said she couldn't bring her claim even though she didn't know about it.

McCain: Obama as a member of the Illinois Senate voted against a bill that would provide immediate medical attention to a child born alive after an abortion. Voted against a ban against partial birth abortion. Voted present 147 times instead of voting.

Obama: Sounds incredible that I would vote to withhold life saving treatment of an infant. That's because it isn't true. There was already a law on the books that required life saving treatment. The Illinois Medical Society opposed it too. Completely support a ban on late term abortion as long as there's an exception for health or life of the mother. Abortion divides us. There surely is some common ground where both those who believe in choice and those who oppose abortion can come together. (McCain smirking again.)

McCain: "Health of mother" been stretched to include almost everything. Cindy and I are adoptive parents. We know what joy that can be.

Question winner: Obama

Last Question: U.S. spends most per capita on education, but by every measure, trail the rest of the world.

Obama: This has more to do with the economic future than anything. Also has to do with security. Typically been a debate between more money and reform. Need to do both. Blah, blah,blah. Parents need to show more responsibility.

McCain: The civil rights issue of the 21st century. Have achieved equal access to schools after long, difficult struggle. Need to have choice. Need to reward good teachers and put bad teachers in another line of work. blah, blah, blah.

Last Question winner: Draw

Final Statements:

McCain: These are difficult times and challenges. America needs a new direction. Can't be satisfied with what we've been doing the last eight years. I have a record of reform. Been a careful steward of your tax dollars. Have to stop the spending. All of our committments will be based on whether you can trust us. Spent my entire life putting this country first.

Obama: All know America is going through tough times. In worst economic times since the Great Depression. Biggest mistake would be to adopt same failed policies we've had for the last eight years. Brighter days are still ahead. Will have to invest in policies that will lift wages and grow our middle class. Not going to be easy or quick. Will require all of us to come together.

Conclusion: I thought McCain did well. The split screen showed his facial reactions, and his smirking didn't go over well. He sure didn't whip Obama's you know what. This was not the debate to be a game changer. I think the debate was a draw and McCain couldn't afford a draw. So, Obama wins.

Blogging the Obama-McCain Debate

Here are my real time observations about the Obama-McCain Town Hall debate tonight. Remember, I am usually wrong about who has won these debates.

First question: Global economic conditions. Kojack reads his question. What is the fastest way to help people in these economic conditions. Obama says it's a final verdict on the failed economic policy of the last eight years supported by Bush and McCain. The middle class needs a rescue package: tax cuts, help for homeowners, fix our health care system. McCain says Americans are angry and upset. Way to fix this problem is with energy independence; keep taxes low -- all Americans keep their taxes low. Don't raise taxes on anyone. Have to do something about home values. McCain gets right up close to Kojack. McCain says he wouldn't appoint Tom Brokaw as his treasury secretary. What's that all about? Generously notes that Warren Buffet supports Obama. Obama says the next treasury secretary has to realize that help can't start at the top. First question winner: A draw.

Second question: Oliver Clark, a young black man. Asks what will actually help people out in the bailout package. McCain: Problem is greed on Wall Street. I suspended my campaign. (Does he really want to mention that fiasco?) Problem is Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac supported by Obama and his cronies were making loans to people who couldn't afford them. (This is just ridiculous. This didn't all start with Fannie and Freddie.) Obama: What's in the rescue package for you, Oliver, is that right now credit markets are frozen up. If companies can't get loan, can't meet payroll. Have to correct a little bit of Senator McCain's history. McCain as recently as March said we need more deregulation. I wrote to Paulson and said we need to tighten up these regulations. Hits back at McCain about his campaign manager being a paid lobbyist for Fannie Mae. Second question winner: Obama

Third Question: Blond woman has trouble reading her lines. "How can we trust either of you when both parties got us into this crisis?" Obama: Understand your cynicism. Remember a little history. When Bush came into office, we had a surplus. Now we have a huge deficit. Over last eight years, McCain has voted for four out of five of those George Bush budgets. Proposing a net spending cut. McCain: "I have been a consistent reformer." (What a joke. Don't forget to tell us you're a maverick.) Obama has never taken on the leaders of his party on a single issue. Obama is the most liberal big spending liberal in the U.S. Senate. He proposed $860 billion in new spending. McCain refuses to prioritize between health care, entitlement programs such as social security and energy. Can do all of them at once. Obama: We have to prioritize. Energy have to deal with today. Have called for $15 billion a year over 10 years so we can be free of middle eastern oil in 10 years. Invokes JFK going to the moon. Second priority is health care. Third is education.Have to prioritize tax side as well as spending side. Third question winner: Obama

Fourth Question: What sacrifices will you ask every American to make? McCain: Have to eliminate some programs that aren't working. Defense spending is one. Have to eliminate earmarks. Some are really good projects. Recommend a spending freeze except for defense and veterans programs. "We're not rifle shots here; we're Americans." (What????) Obama: Remember 9/11. Bush did some smart things at the outset, but one of the opportunities that were missed is when he said "Go out and shop." American people are hungry for leadership that will tackle these problems not just in government but outside of government. Energy for example. Need to learn to conserve. Need to get young people involved, such as renewing the Peace Corps. Fourth Question winner: Obama

Fifth Question: Would you give Congress a date certain to reform social security and medicare? (Brokaw's question makes a wrong assumption. There is nothing wrong with social security.) Obama: The Straight Talk Express lost a wheel. I want to make a tax cut for everyone making under $250,000. McCain: Not that hard to fix social security. Medicare is a little tougher. Need a commission to give recommendations, and then Congress vote up or down. Fifth Question: Draw

Sixth Question: Young black girl, Ingrid Jackson. What would you do in first two years to make sure Congress moves fast on issues like climate change, green jobs, etc. McCain: Disagreed strongly with Bush Administration on climate change. Obama: One of the biggest challenges of our times. Also an opportunity. Can create 5 million new jobs with an energy economy. Sixth Question winner: McCain

Seventh Question: Middle aged white woman: Should health care be treated as a commodity? Obama: Health care is the single biggest question I get. (McCain strolls into the picture. He's trying to play psychological games.) Obama goes on to explain his health care plan; doesn't really address the question. McCain: Agrees with Obama about putting health records on line. Fundamental difference between myself and Obama. He will impose mandates. Obama will fine you if you're a small business and don't give health insurance to your employees or a parent and don't insure your child. (That's stupid. Obama has never proposed that.) McCain: Health care is a responsibility; not a right or a privilege. Obama: Should be a right for every American. Seventh Question Winner: Obama by a big margin.

Eighth Question: Phil Elliott, middle aged white man: How will recent economic stress affect our ability to act as a peace maker in the world? McCain: America is the greatest force for good in the history of the world. Have gone to all four corners of the world and shed our blood. We are peace makers. Have to have knowledge and experience and judgment to know when to go in. Obama doesn't understand national security challenges. Obama: McCain says I don't understand. There's some things I don't understand. Don't understand why we invaded a country that had nothing to do with 9/11. McCain has had the wrong judgment and it has been costly to us. We're spending $10 billion a month in Iraq. We need that $10 billion a month here to put our people back to work. Eighth Question Winner: Draw

Ninth Question: Should U.S. pursue Al Queda in Pakistan? Obama: Have a difficult situation caused by being distracted with Iraq instead going after bin Laden. That's the central front on terrorism. The defense secretary Gates said that's where the war on terror started and where it has to end. Have to change our policies in Pakistan. Can't coddle the dictator and give him billions of dollars while he's making peace treaties with the Taliban. If we have bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to act, then we have to do so. McCain: Hero is Teddy Roosevelt. He used to say, "Talk softly and carry a big stick." Obama wants to talk loudly. Can't announce that you're going to launch an attack on another country. Relations with Pakistan are critical. Have to work with them, not threaten to attack them. Ninth Question Winner; McCain

Tenth Question: How apply pressure on Russia to prevent another Cold War. McCain: Not going to have another cold war with Russia. Long ago warned about Putin. Has shown aggressiveness in Georgia. Watch Ukraine. Have to offer them moral support. Work to get them in NATO. Obama: Resurgence of Russia is one of central issues will have to deal with in next presidency. Can't just offer moral support. Also have to offer economic and concrete assistance. In April, I put out a statement saying the situation in Georgia was unstable,because had Russian peacekeepers. Part of job as commander in chief is to anticipate problems before they happen. Tenth Question: Draw

Eleventh Question: Is Russia under Putin an evil empire? Obama: They've engaged in evil behavior. McCain: Maybe. Eleventh Question: Draw.

Twelfth Question: Retired navy chief: If Iran attacks Israel, would you commit U.S. troops to defend Israel? McCain: Buddies up the questioner. Shakes his hand. "Everything I ever learned was from a chief petty officer." If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, will ratchet up tensions all over Middle East. Obama wants to sit down and negotiate with them without preconditions. I want to modify their behavior with sanctions. Obama: Can't allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. Would be a game changer in the region. Would create possibility of nuclear weapons falling in hands of terrorists. Would never take military action off the table. Important to use all the tools at our disposal to prevent having to make those choices. True that I believe we should have direct talks not only with our friends but also our enemies. It may not work. When we take that approach, we have a better chance at better outcomes. Twelfth Question Winner: Obama

Thirteenth Question: What don't you know and how will you learn it? Obama. My wife Michelle is there, and she would have a long list. Most of the time I would ask her. Talks about his roots, everything he has is due to this great country. McCain: Don't know what all of us don't know. What's going to happen here at home and abroad. Don't know what the unexpected will be. Spent my whole life serving this country. Believe in this country and its future.Great honor of my life was to put my country first. Thirteenth Question Winner: McCain.

Overall impression: I don't think this was a game changer. Mostly it was the same talking points. McCain needed a game changer and didn't get it. Obama wins overall.

Later Update: McCain wouldn't shake Obama's hand. This is going to be the big story tomorrow. People don't like poor sports. See the video.

Latest Update: McCain did shake Obama's hand right after the debate. The video below is a little later when they were getting ready to leave. So, maybe McCain figured he had shaken Obama's hand once and didn't need to do it again. It still looks churlish and small.

Why I Feel Good Today

Less Than Underwhelmed By The Ex-Beauty Queen

I think all Obama supporters should send John McCain a "thank you" note. What a gift, his selection of Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor, to be the Republican vice presidential nominee. In one stroke, he has just given away the biggest argument against Obama, his inexperience. I don't think Democrats need to argue any more that Obama is ready to lead; I don't think they will have to, McCain would be an idiot to keep running ads claiming Obama lacks the experience to be president when his own vice presidential nominee has even less.

Alaskans are shocked. Republican Alaska State Senate president said, she thought it was a joke when someone called her to give her the news. "She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president?" said Green, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla. "Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?"

Another joke is McCain's apparent belief that the selection of a vice presidential candidate with a vagina will get disappointed Hillary supporters to vote for him. It's an insult to the intelligence of the "PUMA's" to think they're going to support a right-wing, home-schooling, anti-choice ex-beauty queen, just because she's a woman. Gail Collins has a hilarious column here about how the pick of Palin couldn't have been because she is a woman.

For more on what the people who know Palin best are thinking, read this blog from Alaska, Mudflats with its picture of downtown Wasilla, Alaska, where Palin was mayor briefly.

Thank you, John McCain, you've cheered me up about Joe Biden.

Underwhelmed by Biden

There is no doubt that Obama is a lot smarter than I am, and he has a political team that has demonstrated its ability to pull off miracles. So there is no reason anyone should listen to me complain about Obama's vice presidential selection. I'm just not very excited about a running mate who is the quintessential Washington insider. Going to meetings is not my idea of accomplishment, and that is essentially what Senators do -- go to endless meetings. Biden strikes me as another preening, self-absorbed Washington politician, with the added disadvantage of being so windy that his talking has become the object of jokes. He's like Joe Lieberman with a chin.

But if Obama has decided that's the running mate who will help win the election, I'll swallow my misgivings. If he thinks Biden will help him win, fine. I'll feel a lot better about the selection if McCain makes the "brilliant" move of selecting Lieberman as his running mate. Biden would look good in comparison.

Bush Report: Against All Enemies

Here is another excerpt from the Richard A. Clarke book that I describe below in my May 31 report. This is from Chapter 9:

"When Clinton left ofice, many people, including the incoming Bush Administration leadership thought he (Clinton) and his administration were overly obsessed with Al Queda. After all, Al Queda had killed only a few Americans, nothing like the hundreds of Marines who died at the hand of the Beirut terrorists during the Reagan Administration or the hundreds of Americans on Pam Am 103 killed by the Libyans in the first Bush Administration. Those two acts had not provoked retaliation. Why was Clinton so worked up about Al Queda? In January, 2001, the new administration thought Clinton's recommendation that their highest priority be the elimination of Al Queda was, well, rather odd, like so many of the Clinton actions."

The argument against Obama is that he has insufficient experience in the national government. Bush was being advised by two of the most experienced Washington hands in history -- Cheney and Rumsfeld. Maybe experience isn't all it's cracked up to be.

No More "Deranged Narcissism"

Although I was happy last night that Obama has clinched the votes needed to be the Democratic presidential nominee, I went to bed feeling sick to my stomach. The discomfort was due to my dismay at Clinton's graceless speech Tuesday night. She had lost the nomination, and if she really had as much concern for working men and women as she has been claiming the last few weeks, then she needed to admit defeat and start the process of motivating her followers to work hard for Obama's election in November.
Instead, we got what Jeffrey Toobin, the New Yorker writer and CNN commentator referred to as the "deranged narcissism" of the Clintons,in which Sen. Clinton was introduced as "the next president of the United States," talked about winning the last primary of the season, when in fact the voting wasn't even over and she did not win it, and claimed she had won more popular votes than anyone else, a dubious claim that includes popular votes for her in Michigan where her name and none of the other candidates' names were on the ballot and doesn't include any votes for Obama, even though, clearly, many of the voters who voted for "undecided" rather than Clinton were Obama supporters.
I went to bed thinking that Clinton is willing to tear the party apart even further to make sure that Obama doesn't win in the fall, so that she can run again in four years. I still do not trust her, but I'm feeling a little better today after the reports that she intends to concede and endorse Obama on Saturday. I am still worried about the price of that concession. Has she been successful in forcing her way onto the ticket, as the vice presidential candidate? She has indisputably been trying. I think Clinton's presence on the ticket would guarantee defeat in November. It would energize the Republican right wing, which is not happy with McCain, but hates Clinton even worse. It would keep Bill in the news. If Hillary could not keep Bill on message, there is no way Obama could do so.
I don't see what Clinton would bring to the ticket, or, if Obama/Clinton were elected, to the country. Her vaunted "competence" is so much myth. She has screwed up everything she has touched, from the failed health care initiative, early in the first Clinton administration to her own campaign. There is no way she should have lost this campaign. She started out with a 30 point lead in the polls. The Democratic party belonged to Bill Clinton. Hillary had all the connections; all the experience in national campaigns and she lost to a little known first termer who raised more money; put together a better staff; had a better strategy and executed his strategy far better.
I will hold my breath until Saturday. I won't really believe that she is conceding until I hear it. And, I won't really believe that she is not doing everything she can to sink Obama's chances until he is inaugurated next January 20th.

Top McCain Advisor Won't Oppose Obama

Okay, you want politics, I'll give you politics.

I find this story so intriguing and emblematic of why I get excited about a Barack Obama candidacy. One of John McCain's top political advisors, his chief media strategist, Mark McKinnon, has said that he will resign from McCain's staff if the Democratic nominee is Barack Obama. He says he disagrees with many of Obama's positions, but he admires him so much that he does not feel comfortable opposing him. Have you ever heard of such a thing? Can you imagine such a thing? Is there any other candidate that you have ever heard of, in any political campaign, that has shown the potential Obama has for fundamentally changing the way politics is done? Think about it, not only the ability to draw Republicans and Independents who agree with his positions to support him, but to get people who disagree with his positions from fighting against him? It's unbelievable, really, but here is a portion of the transcript from an interview with The National Journal on Air for today's edition:

"Q: So you've said that you will leave the McCain campaign if Obama is the nominee. Does that still hold and why?

"McKinnon: Yeah. Well, this goes back to a memo that I wrote to the campaign when I came aboard more than a year and a half ago, and I simply let them know that I had spent time with Obama and read his book and I like the guy. I think he has strong character and a fascinating life story, and I disagree with him fundamentally on issues like Iraq and trade and a number of others. But I just flashed forward to the improbable scenario, at that time seemingly improbable, that John McCain and Barack Obama might face off against one other. And I just told them at the time that I thought that I would be uncomfortable being on the front lines -- being as aggressive as you need to be in a presidential campaign -- and not only that I would be uncomfortable, but that it would be bad for the campaign, and that if that circumstance were to come to be, that I would just take a step to the sidelines and continue to support John McCain 100 percent and be No. 1 fan and cheerleader. But just kind of take myself out of the front lines.

"Q: So you are still going to do that?

"McKinnon: I'm a man of my word.

"Q: And it's because, what, you don't want to run negative ads against Obama?

"McKinnon: Yeah.

"Q: Or is there also a concern on your part that you don't want to run ads against Obama, the first African-American candidate to have this kind of a chance? Is that a factor as well?

"McKinnon: I suppose that is in part, but it's more just that I like and admire the guy. I've come to a point in my life where I think character is important. I think he has great character. Again, I think he's really wrong on fundamental issues, but yeah, I just don't want to -- you know, I kind of want to put my guns down. It's just a matter of degrees, and like I said, I don't think I'm the best person to have in that slot for the campaign. So it would just be better for me to step to the sidelines."

You can read a transcript of the whole interview here.

Okay, enough politics. I got a card from Aunt Tillie about the prospects of her nephew's salvation which I will run tomorrow or Sunday.

Is Obama Wrong About Wright?

For those readers I have left, if I have any, which I probably do not, here are my thoughts on recent political events.

I don't get too excited about hearing a preacher "damn America". I've been hearing it from conservative evangelical Christians for the last 50 years. I grew up hearing Billy Graham on the radio predicting that any day now God would strike out at America for failing to heed his commandments.

More recently, conservative superstars like Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell and James Dobson have built empires on blaming American decadence for such natural disasters as hurricanes in Florida and New Orleans, and the AIDS epidemic. John McCain stood by smiling as right wing preacher, John Hagee, who calls the Roman Catholic Church "the great whore," and who claimed Hurricane Katrina wiped out New Orleans because of gays, endorsed him. Although there was a minor brouhaha about McCain seeking Hagee's support, it was nothing compared to the firestorm over Obama's former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright's intemperate remarks. I don't defend Reverend Wright, any more than I defend the white preachers who get carried away with their own rhetoric. But the snippets of sermons played endlessly on the cable news networks did take some of his most inflammatory statements out of context. Anderson Cooper of CNN has an interesting article here. The long and short of it is that the "chickens coming home to roost" quote after 9/11 was a quote from an American ambassador on Fox News. If you have 6 minutes and 48 seconds, take time to listen to the more complete context of the famous "God damn America" snippet by Reverend Wright. It is probably not something I would say, but it is completely within the parameters of what has been said in pulpits many times by other ministers.

More importantly, Reverend Wright is not running for president of the United States. If he were, he wouldn't get very far, as other preachers, including Pat Robertson and Mike Huckabee discovered (interestingly, Huckabee defended both Obama and Wright, pointing out that ministers speak extemporaneously and get carried away with their words sometimes.)

No one can reasonably say that Obama hates whites -- how could he, he is as much white as he is black. About the only thing they can say is that he should have left the church. Maybe he should have, if he was concerned only about his political future, he probably would have. I'm sure Hillary was telling the truth (for once) when she said that she would not have stayed in the church; of course, she would not have because she would have been afraid of the political fall out. (The same reason she voted for the war in Iraq; she was afraid if she didn't it would affect her political future.) I realize I have long been an Obama supporter and am inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I was very impressed with his speech on race in Philadelphia and his refusal to do the expedient thing and throw Wright under the bus.

So, we will see how it all plays out. I am not as confident that Obama will wind up with the nomination as many pundits apparently are. Too many things can happen and I do not believe Hillary will ever give up voluntarily. If Obama wins the nomination, I am very confident that he will win the general election.

So, way too much politics here, but at least I'm writing.

Some Further Thoughts About Politics: What Now?

I don't intend to turn this into a political blog, but I should follow up after my Obama-Gushing last post, now that New Hampshire has knocked the props out of my high hopes. I still don't understand what happened. When all of the polls, by the media, independent agencies and the candidates showed Obama winning by a minimum of four points to a high of more than 10 points, and when the exit polls, where people who have already voted are asked how they voted, and they report Obama winning, how is it possible that Obama lost?

Granted, Hillary did a good job in the debate, and the show of emotion at the diner when someone asked her how she kept herself looking so good helped her, but an overnight swing that huge? And why wouldn't the exit polls show Hillary winning?

The only explanation that makes sense to me is the Bradley Effect. That is a phenomena first observed 25 years ago, when Tom Bradley, black mayor of California, ran for govenor against a white candidate. Bradley had consistent leads in the polls, and the exit polls taken after people had voted on election day showed Bradley winning, but he lost. The same phenomena has been observed with other black candidates, such as Douglas Wilder, the black governor of Virginia, and others.

The theory is that white people are reluctant to admit prejudice or to appear prejudiced and will tell pollsters that they will vote for the black candidate, but once in the polling booth, when no one knows how they voted, they vote for the white candidate. The Bradley Effect would not have come into play in the Iowa caucuses that Obama won so handily because there are no secret ballots; everyone can see who everyone else is supporting.

The Bradley Effect does not mean a black candidate can never win a secret ballot; Obama won the Illinois Senate race handily and other black candidates have won elections. It does mean that in a very close election, the black candidate would be at a disadvantage.

My initial reaction last night to the Obama defeat is that if it was the Bradley Effect that beat him, he's done as a candidate. Democrats do not have the luxury of nominating a candidate who might lose a close election, like the last two elections have been, because of the candidate's race. In looking around the blogosphere, I see there are bloggers, like the Daily Kos, making the argument that there could not have been a Bradley Effect in New Hampshire because Obama pulled about the same percentage of actual votes as had been predicted, Clinton won because she exceeded the percentage of votes that had been predicted for her. I don't understand that argument but I'm hoping it is correct.

At this point, I'm not abandoning my support for Obama. I still think he would make the best candidate and the best president. We'll just have to see how this plays out.

Now, I will not bore you with any more political ramblings. I need to tell you about the great movie I saw last weekend, Juno, my first five-star movie of the year. But that will have to wait until later.

Later note: Here's an Op-Ed piece in Thursday's New York Times by the head of the Pew Research Center offering support for the idea that the Bradley Effect was the determining factor in the New Hampshire voting.

Some Thoughts About Politics

As veterans of this blog know, I have long been a Barack Obama fan. Not always, though. When Obama first ran for the U.S. Senate, in 2004, he was in a Democratic primary crowded with better known and better funded candidates. Son Number Two called my attention to him as someone worthy of support, but I didn't want to waste my vote on someone who had no chance. He seemed to come out of nowhere to win the Democratic primary that year, and then, when he gave the electrifying speech at the Democratic convention that year, I was convinced that this is a man destined for great things.

The knock on Obama has been that a black man cannot get enough votes from the white majority to win a presidential election. I didn't buy that argument even before the Iowa caucuses last night. Obama won white votes in the Democratic senatorial primary in Illinois, enough to defeat better funded and better known white candidates, and elections of people like Wilder, the black governor of Virginia, the capital of the old Confederacy, show that things like race are not as important as they once were. Sure there are overt racists who will not vote for Obama because of his race, but they weren't going to vote for the Democratic candidate in any event, certainly not for Hillary Clinton.

I have also long disliked Hillary Clinton. I went to hear her speak on the campus of the Big U in our town in 1992 when her husband was running for president, and came away impressed only with what a bad impression she made. Although she has my sympathy for how badly she has been treated by her husband, the media and professional Hilary Haters, like Rush Limbaugh, I do not think she has the capacity to lead. Not to say she isn't smart, but there is a difference between brain power and leadership.

As I have observed politics over all these many years, I have come to believe that a candidate's ability to reach people trumps almost everything else. The candidate has to come across as understanding the concerns of ordinary people and to be likeable, someone you'd want to have a beer with (if you were a beer drinker.) Hillary has a tin ear for how she comes across, in contrast to her husband who is almost magical in his abilities.

Hillary's campaign seems to have been built primarily on her inevitability as the Democratic candidate, the one with the money, the organization and the toughness to beat the Republicans. Lately, she has embraced "change" as a mantra, but she has a fundamental problem having to argue both that she is the most experienced candidate and she is the candidate of change. Although it is not impossible for an experienced person to also be an agent of change (think Lyndon Johnson and the Civil Rights Act of 1964,) those two concepts are not usually associated. Bill Clinton could probably make the sale on that idea; Hillary cannot (or more precisely has not up to this point.)

Obama has that undefinable ability to reach people. As does Mike Huckabee. I noticed the banner behind the stage on which Huckabee gave his victory speech last night in Iowa read, "I Like Mike." Dwight D. Eisenhower won the presidency twice with the almost identical slogan (minus one letter) "I Like Ike." Another thing I noticed, having watched both the Obama and the Huckabee victory speeches last night is that their messages were almost identical. Huckabee could have been reading from an Obama script as he proclaimed that people were tired of the bickering in Washington; that Americans were one people, that we should not be tearing each other down, etc.

I don't think Obama has the nomination wrapped up. Clinton still has a substantial lead in the opinion polls in New Hampshire. She has her husband stumping for her full time. She has money and organization. But she has lost the argument on electability and inevitability, and without those what are her assets? I do not believe she will get many votes because of her likeability. With five days to turn things around in New Hampshire, what is she going to do that she hasn't already tried?

If Obama does win New Hampshire and wins South Carolina, then I think the battle is all over and Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

Which leads me to my next subject: "Heartbreak." Time after time, I have gotten excited about a president, only to have become disillusioned. I thought Jimmy Carter really was going to make a difference. After four years of his bungling, I voted for Ronald Reagan, as a protest. I really did think Bill Clinton was going to make a difference. Actually, he did accomplish many things, including getting rid of a deficit that had been predicted to balloon indefinitely for years; getting an economy to boom nonstop for eight years; passing legislation that helped people like the Family Medical Leave Act and other things. But his inability to keep his pants zipped, eventually distracted from his many accomplishments.

Nevertheless, I haven't learned my lesson. I still have hope. Go Obama, go.