tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post1387087477156641855..comments2023-10-10T05:08:34.827-05:00Comments on A Crockhead Abroad: Some Further Thoughts About Politics: What Now?Crockheadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08410758631825372736noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-57126193827300932242008-01-13T19:58:00.000-06:002008-01-13T19:58:00.000-06:00Ahem.Ahem.Debra Hopehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17216222838011215183noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-39547103572334283832008-01-10T18:37:00.000-06:002008-01-10T18:37:00.000-06:00Aw, Juno - yay!Obama came out with the same number...Aw, Juno - yay!<BR/><BR/>Obama came out with the same number of delegates as Hillary in NH, and I'm also pretty optimistic that Obama's still on good ground.Lydiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15888551861880128162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-86968315157604359602008-01-10T16:21:00.000-06:002008-01-10T16:21:00.000-06:00He's saying that poor people are more likely to be...He's saying that poor people are more likely to be racially prejudiced than rich people. I wonder what the evidence is for that. I have anecdotal evidence the other way, but I haven't seen any studies.Crockheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08410758631825372736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-53964881259811938192008-01-10T15:20:00.000-06:002008-01-10T15:20:00.000-06:00There's an opinion piece in the NY Times today by ...There's an <A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/opinion/10kohut.html?ex=1357707600&en=bb5774965ae73f9c&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink" REL="nofollow">opinion piece in the NY Times</A> today by the president of the Pew Research Center giving the argument that the Bradley Effect <I>is</I> what accounts for this, but that it was hidden by the polling. Specifically that Clinton was stronger than Obama among both those with family incomes below $50,000 and those who never attended college. Those groups are coincidentally the most likely to refuse to take a political survey. I guess I could just quote the article on that:<BR/><BR/><B>"Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here’s the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews."</B>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-80774352682820543052008-01-10T11:01:00.000-06:002008-01-10T11:01:00.000-06:00Interesting article in Salon that you linked to, D...Interesting article in Salon that you linked to, Dan. As to your last observation, I agree, that there is prejudice against women, as well as against blacks, but I don't think the Bradley Effect has been noticed in races involving women. I don't know that this is true, but I wonder if prejudice against blacks draws more of a moral condemnation than prejudice against women. There is hardly anyone left anymore who will try to justify racial prejudice, while there are still plenty of apologists for treating women differently from men. The Bradley Effect is based mainly on white guilt, while misogynists like Chris Matthews still get by talking about women like they couldn't about men.Crockheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08410758631825372736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-86433873167755951772008-01-10T10:11:00.000-06:002008-01-10T10:11:00.000-06:00There are two theories that could also explain it,...There are two theories that could also explain it, that I've heard from various places:<BR/><BR/>1. The media was so gleeful about the downfall of Hillary, combined with her unusual showing of some real emotion at the diner caused people to react at the last minute. See <A HREF="http://www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2008/01/09/hillary_nh" REL="nofollow"/> for the sentiment.<BR/><BR/>2. People decided that they wanted it to be a more competitive race, to see if Obama can take more heat than he's been given so far. If he had won NH handily, the momentum could have been unstoppable.<BR/><BR/>As for polls being wrong, the last polls were taken on Sunday, and obviously there was a lot of movement on Monday. I suppose it could be the Bradley effect, but it seems like we live in a different time, and Obama is a different candidate. He does not run as a "black candidate," and he seems to put white people at ease with his unity theme.<BR/><BR/>I guess the question is: How could we verify whether it is the Bradley effect, or something else? I have a hard time believing that this late in day, people would feel the need to lie to a phone pollster about who they are going to support because of race. But, I've been unpleasantly surprised before.<BR/><BR/>Also, wouldn't there be a similiar effect for a woman candidate? I've never known people to limit their prejudices to race.Dan Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08387429717617727003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-6430433047819682962008-01-10T09:55:00.000-06:002008-01-10T09:55:00.000-06:00I've seen that argument but I don't think I unders...I've seen that argument but I don't think I understand it. Couldn't Clinton's votes have come from Obama's, but his percentages stayed the same if there were fewer people actually voting than had been measured in the poll? Were the polls actually measuring likely voters in the Democratic primary or were they polls of all New Hampshire voters? I don't know the answers to that question.Crockheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08410758631825372736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15846426.post-89941353481877041972008-01-10T09:02:00.000-06:002008-01-10T09:02:00.000-06:00An argument against the Bradley Effect is that the...An argument against the Bradley Effect is that the polling info for Obama was accurate - he received the percentage of actual votes that polling said he would. Same with Edwards. The difference in the voting is that polling said Clinton would be trailing Obama, but she wound up with ~9% more votes than polling indicated she'd get. You could possibly argue that there's a Bradley Effect hidden in that group of undecided voters who wound up choosing Clinton, but it's not really the case that Obama's support went down during actual vote casting...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com